The Yankees have a problem - the starting rotation behind CC Sabathia is full of question marks. Burnett is enigmatic at best, Hughes may or may not come back from his injury, Colon and Garcia are on borrowed time, and Nova is at points brilliant while sometimes showing his inexperience. With the Yankees offense the way it is this team is nearly a lock to make the playoffs - they're on pace for roughly 92-95 wins, which may not win the division but will surely lock up the wild card. The problem, then, is where to improve the team for October.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
A quickie: The Yankees and 7/31
OK, so the Yankees are hanging right with the Red Sox (even after last night's loss) and are always buyers at the trade deadline. On ESPNNY, the Yankees' Daily Briefing (a must read for every Yankee fan; it goes up in the wee hours and usually leads the ESPNNY Yankees blog until a few hours before game time) asked here and here about what the Yankees should do regarding third base and the rotation. I think it's fairly simple - they should do nothing major.
The Yankees best work is done between November and March regarding acquiring talent. There's no reason to overpay for a player in July when you're already expected to be in the playoffs in some form (Baseball Prospectus has the Yankees at 93.8% after last nights loss), and with the playoffs being baseball's version of a crapshoot it makes no sense to try to acquire that which the Yankees likely already have in their system. The bullpen is about to become crowded again when Soriano returns, the rotation has Nova backing it up (although Colon and Garcia could turn into pumpkins any minute now), and A-Rod is only out for another 3-5 weeks.
If Cashman can trade for a piece without giving up much of the farm (and without letting Levine negotiate), then he should do so. The Yankees need a lefty bullpen guy besides Boone Logan to matchup with in the playoffs and possibly a backup infielder that can actually field his position (sorry Nunie, but you need "seasoning"). There's no reason to acquire a front-line starter because of the nature of the playoffs - one win in the standings before October will mean nothing once the playoffs start.
The Yankees best work is done between November and March regarding acquiring talent. There's no reason to overpay for a player in July when you're already expected to be in the playoffs in some form (Baseball Prospectus has the Yankees at 93.8% after last nights loss), and with the playoffs being baseball's version of a crapshoot it makes no sense to try to acquire that which the Yankees likely already have in their system. The bullpen is about to become crowded again when Soriano returns, the rotation has Nova backing it up (although Colon and Garcia could turn into pumpkins any minute now), and A-Rod is only out for another 3-5 weeks.
If Cashman can trade for a piece without giving up much of the farm (and without letting Levine negotiate), then he should do so. The Yankees need a lefty bullpen guy besides Boone Logan to matchup with in the playoffs and possibly a backup infielder that can actually field his position (sorry Nunie, but you need "seasoning"). There's no reason to acquire a front-line starter because of the nature of the playoffs - one win in the standings before October will mean nothing once the playoffs start.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
The Uselessness of the All Star Game
There are roughly 750 MLB players on active rosters, with (my guess) an average of four players per MLB disabled list. [Disclaimer: I could find no resource with total MLB numbers. If someone can find one I would be grateful] That makes a total of 870 players under contract in the major leagues, which would make it the second largest league in terms of players at the highest level (football being first, hockey behind and basketball way behind). Of that 870, 67 players were voted and/or selected for the All Star Game to be played this Tuesday. As of this writing, we're up to 84 "All Stars," which is roughly 10% of the total number of people that played in the majors this season by my count.
So, if you've been selected for the All Star game you're allowed to a) invent an injury, b) beg off the team, or c) actually get injured in order to get your three days off. Obviously getting injured is not the ideal way to get out of the game, nor do I hold it against a player that is legitimately injured from not participating. Begging off and inventing an injury to me seem to be the same thing - making an excuse to get out of the game. Look, the fans voted most of you into the game...unless you're really hurt suck it up and play a few innings! Nothing ticks off the fans more than being given the metaphorical finger.
After the famous All Star Tie Bud Selig made the All Star Game count - the winning league also won home-field advantage for the World Series. This smacked of dumb on so many levels. With this rule, the token picks of a couple of junky teams in whichever league can decide where Game 7 might be held. As a fan of the Yankees, I don't like the fact that a member of the Royals (heaven forbid he's pitching) might give up the go-ahead run and force the Yankees to go to Philadelphia for game 7.
Also, let's not forget that some of the best players on both sides have begged off the team - we're already into the second tier of backups being named for this season. It's getting to the point where you don't even pay attention to the "fan voting" and you simply wait until the final changes are made a day or so before the game itself. As a fan, I can't get excited if half (or more) of the players that were selected aren't playing.
How useless is the All Star Game? Scott Rolen, he of the .276 OBP (yes, on base percentage, not batting average) is a replacement because he was third in the third-baseman voting. Nothing against Scott Rolen - he's been a good player for a long time - but when we're putting a guy that makes an out MORE THAN 70% OF THE TIME into a game that could potentially decide the World Series location, it's time to reexamine what we're looking at.
So, if you've been selected for the All Star game you're allowed to a) invent an injury, b) beg off the team, or c) actually get injured in order to get your three days off. Obviously getting injured is not the ideal way to get out of the game, nor do I hold it against a player that is legitimately injured from not participating. Begging off and inventing an injury to me seem to be the same thing - making an excuse to get out of the game. Look, the fans voted most of you into the game...unless you're really hurt suck it up and play a few innings! Nothing ticks off the fans more than being given the metaphorical finger.
After the famous All Star Tie Bud Selig made the All Star Game count - the winning league also won home-field advantage for the World Series. This smacked of dumb on so many levels. With this rule, the token picks of a couple of junky teams in whichever league can decide where Game 7 might be held. As a fan of the Yankees, I don't like the fact that a member of the Royals (heaven forbid he's pitching) might give up the go-ahead run and force the Yankees to go to Philadelphia for game 7.
Also, let's not forget that some of the best players on both sides have begged off the team - we're already into the second tier of backups being named for this season. It's getting to the point where you don't even pay attention to the "fan voting" and you simply wait until the final changes are made a day or so before the game itself. As a fan, I can't get excited if half (or more) of the players that were selected aren't playing.
How useless is the All Star Game? Scott Rolen, he of the .276 OBP (yes, on base percentage, not batting average) is a replacement because he was third in the third-baseman voting. Nothing against Scott Rolen - he's been a good player for a long time - but when we're putting a guy that makes an out MORE THAN 70% OF THE TIME into a game that could potentially decide the World Series location, it's time to reexamine what we're looking at.
Saturday, July 2, 2011
I don't understand the problem here...
(H/T to Rebecca for pointing in the direction of this article at WSJ)
So Yankee Stadium II (the place that closed in 2008) was a fairly pitcher/hitter neutral park. The eye would back this up - right field obviously plays short with the porch and the short foul line, but the left-center power-alley is immense at 399 ft. Lefty pull hitters would find the park a homer haven but all but the best righty hitters will find their power sapped by Death Valley. Yankee Stadium III plays as a hitter-friendly stadium, the most likely culprit being the wind currents in the new stadium since the dimensions of both stadiums are similar...but not the same (right field slightly shorter, center slightly longer).
So the Yankees have a stadium friendly to lefty pull hitters and have a philosophy of having switch hitters disbursed through the lineup with the ability to yank a homer every once in a while (Gardner and Jeter are exceptions, but their skill set compliments the lineup well). So what do they build their lineup with? Lefty power hitters! With both Yankee Stadium iterations, the short porch helps them build the lineup to the stadium...which is exactly what you should do - it's called home-field advantage.
This brings us to the mammoth shot A-Rod hit last night to the high wall at Citi Field. The ball he hit looked like it would have been a home run in Yellowstone Park, but Citi Field has a ridiculously high wall in left-center field, and A-Rod hit this ball all but one foot up the wall. What was a homer in almost every other park was a ringing double in Queens.
Why is this a problem? Shea Stadium was a pitcher-friendly park but absolutely fair - symmetrical along the centerline of the field. They had power hitters in Delgado, Wright, and Beltran with Reyes providing some pop out of the leadoff spot. 2009 saw the move to Citi and it's bizarre dimensions compared to Shea, and the Mets' power numbers declined precipitously. Their leading home run hitter was Daniel Murphy, and Carlos Beltran had a 20-homer pace. Wright hit a grand total of 10 bombs - the same both Gary Sheffield and Jeff Francoeur hit in roughly half the PA's. Wright improved back to 29 home runs in 2010, but had five more on the road as opposed to home. This year is a bad year to measure Wright because of his injury-marred 2011 season so far, but Beltran seems to have figured out Citi. Beltran has 12 homers this season and a couple more at home than on the road.
It seems like the Wilpons wanted a park to fit Jose Reyes alone...a triples haven, where old-school baseball reigned (even though one could argue that old school baseball includes a lot of homers) at the expense of power hitters. The Wall Street Journal link above shows how a bunch of Yankee Stadium homers are fly balls at Citi, which I find an unfair comparison regardless...a team should cater to the stadium where it plays half its games. But the Mets already had a decent team, and decided to build their stadium almost in the face of their team - besides Reyes, not too many players on the Mets for the last three seasons really fit Citi Field. Francoeur famously called Citi Field "a joke," but then again I don't put too much stock the opinion of a guy that makes out 69% of the time for his career.
This took on more of a ramble than I planned. My feeling is the Mets have a serious problem with their stadium...the playing field dimensions and fences need to be altered. I can't see high-profile free agents coming to Citi Field when their offensive numbers will likely decrease, since (besides notable exceptions) high-profile equals power hitter. Hopefully Sandy Alderson will be able to build a team to his park (assuming he is allowed to by the Wilpons or Einhorn), but hopefully the Mets are allowed to lower that confounded wall some before they lose Wright mentally.
So Yankee Stadium II (the place that closed in 2008) was a fairly pitcher/hitter neutral park. The eye would back this up - right field obviously plays short with the porch and the short foul line, but the left-center power-alley is immense at 399 ft. Lefty pull hitters would find the park a homer haven but all but the best righty hitters will find their power sapped by Death Valley. Yankee Stadium III plays as a hitter-friendly stadium, the most likely culprit being the wind currents in the new stadium since the dimensions of both stadiums are similar...but not the same (right field slightly shorter, center slightly longer).
So the Yankees have a stadium friendly to lefty pull hitters and have a philosophy of having switch hitters disbursed through the lineup with the ability to yank a homer every once in a while (Gardner and Jeter are exceptions, but their skill set compliments the lineup well). So what do they build their lineup with? Lefty power hitters! With both Yankee Stadium iterations, the short porch helps them build the lineup to the stadium...which is exactly what you should do - it's called home-field advantage.
This brings us to the mammoth shot A-Rod hit last night to the high wall at Citi Field. The ball he hit looked like it would have been a home run in Yellowstone Park, but Citi Field has a ridiculously high wall in left-center field, and A-Rod hit this ball all but one foot up the wall. What was a homer in almost every other park was a ringing double in Queens.
Why is this a problem? Shea Stadium was a pitcher-friendly park but absolutely fair - symmetrical along the centerline of the field. They had power hitters in Delgado, Wright, and Beltran with Reyes providing some pop out of the leadoff spot. 2009 saw the move to Citi and it's bizarre dimensions compared to Shea, and the Mets' power numbers declined precipitously. Their leading home run hitter was Daniel Murphy, and Carlos Beltran had a 20-homer pace. Wright hit a grand total of 10 bombs - the same both Gary Sheffield and Jeff Francoeur hit in roughly half the PA's. Wright improved back to 29 home runs in 2010, but had five more on the road as opposed to home. This year is a bad year to measure Wright because of his injury-marred 2011 season so far, but Beltran seems to have figured out Citi. Beltran has 12 homers this season and a couple more at home than on the road.
It seems like the Wilpons wanted a park to fit Jose Reyes alone...a triples haven, where old-school baseball reigned (even though one could argue that old school baseball includes a lot of homers) at the expense of power hitters. The Wall Street Journal link above shows how a bunch of Yankee Stadium homers are fly balls at Citi, which I find an unfair comparison regardless...a team should cater to the stadium where it plays half its games. But the Mets already had a decent team, and decided to build their stadium almost in the face of their team - besides Reyes, not too many players on the Mets for the last three seasons really fit Citi Field. Francoeur famously called Citi Field "a joke," but then again I don't put too much stock the opinion of a guy that makes out 69% of the time for his career.
This took on more of a ramble than I planned. My feeling is the Mets have a serious problem with their stadium...the playing field dimensions and fences need to be altered. I can't see high-profile free agents coming to Citi Field when their offensive numbers will likely decrease, since (besides notable exceptions) high-profile equals power hitter. Hopefully Sandy Alderson will be able to build a team to his park (assuming he is allowed to by the Wilpons or Einhorn), but hopefully the Mets are allowed to lower that confounded wall some before they lose Wright mentally.
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