Friday, July 29, 2011

To trade or not to trade...

The Yankees have a problem - the starting rotation behind CC Sabathia is full of question marks.  Burnett is enigmatic at best, Hughes may or may not come back from his injury, Colon and Garcia are on borrowed time, and Nova is at points brilliant while sometimes showing his inexperience.  With the Yankees offense the way it is this team is nearly a lock to make the playoffs - they're on pace for roughly 92-95 wins, which may not win the division but will surely lock up the wild card.  The problem, then, is where to improve the team for October.

The Yankees have other problems besides a starting pitcher.  The DH position has been a negative this season for the Yankees - on a team with so many good hitters, the Yankees main DH (Posada) has an OPS+ of 85 and the rest of the time it's not much better.  The Yankees also have only one lefty in the bullpen (Logan) that can be as effective as not.  They could also use a manager that uses his players effectively (like batting Gardner leadoff).

The problems, as with all transactions, are cost, risk, and potential replacements.  The DH issue is easy - bring up Montero or find someone that can actually hit or get on base at better than a .309 clip.  LOOGY might not be fixable but that'd be a luxury, since both David Robertson and Mariano Rivera can get both sides out and Soriano should be able to do the same.  So that just leaves us with the most expensive position to upgrade - starting pitcher.

Ubaldo Jimenez is the most obvious choice to target with Hiroki Kuroda running a close (and possibly more attainable) second.  The issue is what it will take to get either of these pitchers, and whether or not they will be an actual upgrade over what's currently in the Yankees' inventory.  The word on Jimenez is that he's lost something off his fastball - 3-4 MPH if the reports are accurate.  Except for a three month stretch last year, Ubaldo Jimenez has basically been an above average pitcher, but not an elite pitcher.  Now, he's showing the warning signs of a pitcher that's injured.  I don't think the Yankees should be trading chips for the risk involved with Jimenez, team-friendly contract and all.  Hiroki Kuroda would reportedly waive his no-trade clause to come to the Yankees or Red Sox and represents a less volatile commodity than Jimenez.  Kuroda could also theoretically be acquired for less by taking on more salary from the Dodgers and also would cost less in prospects.  He's also a slightly above average pitcher but has no questions about his arm besides those questions any 36-year old starter might face but might end up as less than he is now simply by facing better competition.

Ultimately it might be too expensive to try to upgrade the Yankees, and ultimately any move Cashman makes will be risky.  For a team already assured of entry to the crapshoot that is the MLB postseason, acquiring pieces that are not clear improvements over what's already on the roster does not make sense, and acquiring insurance for the two surprises in the Yankee rotation (Garcia and Colon) might not be worth the effort.

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